Post-election capital expenditure (capex) has been weak at 2 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in M9FY25. The FY25 revised estimates (RE) indicate 7 per cent growth in FY25 against FY24, implying 21 per cent Y-o-Y growth in Q4FY25 government capex.
While activity in the highway segment has been slow, the bid pipeline saw recovery in January 2024, and awards are expected to improve in Q4FY24. The national highway (NH) bid pipeline has recovered from a low of Rs 15,900 crore in December 2023 to Rs 68,400 crore at present. The NHAI's pipeline stands at Rs 66,100 crore, with hybrid annuity model (HAM), build operate transfer (BOT) and engineering procurement and construction (EPC) projects accounting for 60 per cent, 29 per cent and 13 per cent share, respectively.
The one-year returns for equity-oriented mutual fund (MFs) schemes have largely mirrored the gains made in the secondary market. However, schemes that invest in infrastructure (infra), small-cap, and public sector undertaking (PSU) banks have emerged standout performers, with gains in excess of 100 per cent in some cases. Of the total 484 equity schemes, 353 have managed to beat the Sensex, reveals the data provided by Value Research. Around 20 have delivered returns in excess of 90 per cent and six schemes have given returns of over 100 per cent in the past one year. The S&P BSE Sensex Total Return Index (TRI) has given returns of 51 per cent in the last one year, ended October 29.
Five to eight per cent of projects from the loan portfolio of L&T Infrastructure Finance face a payment problem, says its chief executive officer, Suneet K Maheshwari.
L&T IDPL, Gammon, IL&FS in race for Rs 21,147-cr Mumbai elevated rail corridor
10 largecaps stocks which stand to gain from the Budget.
Reliance Infra claims the run by the market operator has caused a loss of Rs. 300,000 crore to infrastructure stocks.
Brokerages expect a further slowdown in Indian firms' revenue and earnings growth in Q4FY25, following low single-digit growth in the preceding three quarters, as factors like weak consumer demand and credit growth linger on.
Government officials believe that central bridge projects perform better than state projects due to stricter checks and balances.
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are expected to witness pressure on volumes in the October-December quarter. However, price hikes will help push up revenues, said brokerages.For India's largest engineering firm, Larsen and Toubro (L&T), the analysts expect a 20 per cent growth in consolidated revenue, and an 8.1 per cent core business Ebitda margin, up 40 bps from a year ago.
Bhogapuram international airport, Ramayapatnam and Bandar ports, the Muktyala lift irrigation scheme and a bridge across the Krishna river are some of the projects likely to be hit.
'The private sector will look to the budget to check whether there are any headwinds or tailwinds.'
'Developers are into profit-making. And there's not too much money in the affordable segment.' 'So, they don't do affordable housing.'
Infrastructure funds, which bet on stocks closely linked with infrastructure development in the country, have emerged as one of the best-performing categories over the past year. They have generated an average return of 90.63 per cent - the third-best, after technology funds and small-cap funds. Of the 21 schemes in the category, seven have given a return of more than 100 per cent in a year.
From the Sensex pack, Larsen & Toubro jumped over 3 per cent.ITC, Reliance Industries, Sun Pharma, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, Infosys and State Bank of India were the other major gainers.
A 25 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) increase in budget allocation towards the roads sector for FY24 has led to renewed interest among investors. However, a combination of escalating costs for Bharatmala and unseasonal rains to some extent have impacted progress. Bharatmala's cost has nearly doubled from Rs 5.35 trillion to Rs 10.6 trillion and the finance ministry has asked MoRTH to go slow until Cabinet approval is received.
The engineering and construction (E&C) sector delivered an excellent performance in the last two financial years (FY2021-22 or FY22 and FY23's nine-months) and there's reason to believe that FY24 will also see outperformance. The sector has emerged from the pandemic with stronger balance sheets and more rational cost structures. It has a big order book and it should see new order flows accelerate in FY24.
MEIL has become one of the fastest growing and most successful infrastructure and engineering, procurement, and construction companies in the country in recent times.
Larsen & Toubro (L&T) disappointed the Street with its results for the January-March quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) due to weaker core engineering & construction (E&C) segment performance by the engineering giant.' Although core E&C order inflows for FY23 rose 19 per cent year-on-year (YoY), with orders from railways, metals and water sectors, margins in the infrastructure segment crashed to all-time low. Revenue at Rs 58,300 crore was up 10 per cent YoY but somewhat below expectations.
Operating margins have been the primary driver of corporate earnings in India in recent quarters, despite revenue growth suffering from weak consumer demand. Companies across sectors have reported a sharp improvement in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) margins over the past two years, benefiting from lower commodity and energy prices. Higher margins more than compensated for slower revenue growth, resulting in double-digit growth in net profit for five consecutive quarters.
Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC), the Indian Railways' wholly-owned listed subsidiary, is eyeing partnerships to offset recurring costs incurred in train operations, which is part of its two-year-old diversification from core catering and ticketing businesses. To this end, it is courting public sector undertakings such as Bharat Heavy Electricals (BHEL) and others to create a special purpose vehicle for the routes for which IRCTC has bid. The Railway ministry opened bids for public private partnerships in passenger train operations in July 2021 and received bids to operate 29 pairs of trains with around 40 modern rakes that would entail an investment of Rs 7,200 crore.
After the success of the National Highways Authority of India's (NHAI's) first infrastructure investment trust (InvIT) with foreign institutional investors, the Centre is working on a proposal to launch a fresh InvIT for national highways, where domestic retail investors can hold units of the trust
Infrastructure stocks are once again gaining traction.
Operating margins for some companies dipped in Q3, 2021-22 but this sector could be nearing the bottom of the cycle in terms of profits.
Following are comments from economists at leading financial institutions, banks and rating agencies on the interim Budget:
The first consortium includes Afcons Infrastructure, IRCON International and JMC Projects, while the second group of companies include NCC, Tata Projects and J. Kumar Infra Projects.
The NHAI says non-availability of funds from private developers and financial institutions is also responsible for major delays.
Allegations of a particular market player being favoured over others were flying thick and fast in the early days of the scam.
Ajit Mishra, vice president, Research, Religare Broking, answers your queries.
ONGC was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying around 6 per cent, followed by IndusInd Bank, L&T, UltraTech Cement, Titan, SBI and NTPC. NSE Nifty settled 32.10 points up at 14,707.80.
Ajit Mishra, vice president, Research, Religare Broking, answers your queries.
Select companies in infra, capital goods, private banks, auto, oil & gas, and mining could be considered by investors.
'Once finished, the project will reduce the travel time between Mumbai and Ahmedabad to just over two hours.'
Hike in planned public-sector capital expenditure will be credit-positive for infra cos
L&T was the top loser in the Sensex pack, dropping 4.99 per cent, after the engineering major posted a 45 per cent decline in consolidated net profit for the September quarter. Titan, ONGC, Axis Bank, HUL, NTPC, M&M and HDFC were the other major laggards, shedding up to 3.32 per cent. NSE Nifty fell 58.80 points or 0.50 per cent to 11,670.80.
In the case of Satyam Computer Services, L&T had acquired 8 per cent stake after the company's founder B Ramalinga Raju admitted to fraud, and had demanded representation on the company's board. The plea, however, did not find support. The promoters of Maytas had pledged shares with the two institutions and Sicom to raise funds.
Naik is passionate about protecting India's manufacturing sector from the onslaught of Chinese imports.
The sale of Essar Oil was India's biggest deleveraging exercise undertaken by any debt-heavy group
Reliance Group, recently, accused L&T Finance and Edelweiss Group entities of "illegal" and "motivated" actions in invoking the pledged shares of Anil Ambani group's three listed firms and selling them in open market causing a steep fall in share values.
Investment in infrastructure was necessary for the economy, as power shortages, inadequate transport and poor connectivity affect overall growth performance, as per the Economic Survey 2019-20 tabled in Parliament by Union Finance and Corporate Affairs Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. "To achieve GDP of USD 5 trillion by 2024-25, India needs to spend about USD 1.4 trillion (Rs 100 lakh crore) over these years on infrastructure so that a lack of infrastructure does not become a constraint to growth," it said.
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